Cortburg Speaks Retirement

Luck of the Investor - Making Your Own Luck on St. Patrick's Day

• Miguel Gonzalez, MBA, AIF®, CPFA®, CRC® • Season 2024 • Episode 179

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Unlock the secrets to making your own investment luck this St. Patrick’s Day with Miguel Gonzalez, Certified Retirement Counselor! Join us as we explore the impact of luck on investment returns and discover practical steps to enhance your financial success.

Cortburg Speaks Retirement - episode #179: Luck of the Investor: Making Your Own Luck on St. Patrick’s Day 

Cortburg Retirement Advisors is a full-service, boutique financial planning firm - helping guide clients through turbulent and calm economies. Their goal is to help grow, protect, and preserve their assets from their first job through retirement. Cortburg’s “all in one house” capabilities mean that their experienced team can help with all financial needs - wealth management, estate and tax planning, group retirement, employee benefits, insurance, and retirement planning.    


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with Miguel Gonzalez, MBA, AIF®, CPFA®, CRC®

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Welcome to Cortburg Speaks Retirement

An audio podcast about investing in the stock market, financial planning, money management and retirement planning.  Each Wednesday, we help investors at all stages of life learn how to potentially grow and preserve their money from first job through retirement.

Now here is your host, Miguel Gonzalez.

 

HOST

Good morning and welcome to the CORTBURG SPEAKS RETIREMENT audio podcast.   

On this week’s audio podcast, we’ll talk about making your own investment luck this St. Patrick’s Day!

As Samuel Goldwyn once said, "The harder I work…the luckier I get!" 1 But when it comes to investing, luck may play a huge role in outcomes—no matter how hard you work.2 Below, we discuss some ways that luck may impact your investing, as well as some steps you may wish to take to try to make your own good luck this St. Patrick's Day.

The Impact of Luck on Investment Returns

One reason so many financial professionals advise against market timing for long-term investors involves the distribution of days with major gains and days with major losses. Historically, and particularly seen during the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of the market's best days were followed by some of its worst, and vice versa.3

Trying to sell at the top and buy at the bottom may require a great deal of luck. You may need to trust that a day with a 2 or 3 percent loss may not be immediately followed by a day with a 2 or 3 percent gain. However, over the course of a long investing horizon, these single-digit gains and dips aren't likely to have a major impact unless you make a habit of buying and selling during volatile periods.

Focus On Process, Not Prior Results

How can you take advantage of good luck and avoid the impact of bad luck when choosing your investments? The answer may be complicated and may depend on your personal circumstances. However, by focusing on the investment process—rather than chasing returns by buying into funds that have recently had a good run—you may be more likely to pick a future winner.

Having a solid process may increase your probability of investment success over time. With your financial professional, consider focusing on these three steps:

  • Discuss your financial professional's analytical process. How does your financial professional choose funds? How does he or she know whether it's time to dump underperforming funds or stick around for a future rally? By having some insight into the process your financial professional uses to choose their investments, you may determine whether this approach fits your risk tolerance and desired asset allocation.
  • Ask whether this process is designed to manage and mitigate some of the behavioral biases that may send investments off-course. Some of these biases include overconfidence, sunk cost fallacy, and anchoring of sources. Ensure that your financial professional is reading and absorbing information from a variety of solid sources.
  • Once an investment or set of investments has been chosen, evaluate it with an eye toward its end user. Is this investment intended to provide high commissions that enrich the investment company more than the shareholders? Or does it provide an excess return that more than accounts for its fees? Compare the investments to their benchmarks to see how they've performed over the years.

Sifting through which successes are attributable to luck and which to skill may be tricky. But by firming up your investment selection process, you may improve your own luck and increase your likelihood of success.

Make sure to visit our website, www.CortburgRetirement.com. Our site is filled with educational videos, eBooks, publications, and financial calculators designed to help you learn more about your finances.  As you search our site, send us a note regarding any questions you may have about any particular investment concepts or products. We will get back to you quickly with a thoughtful answer.

This is Miguel Gonzalez, Certified Retirement Counselor (CRC) and Managing Partner, with Cortburg Retirement Advisors signing off for this week’s educational podcast.  

 

DISCLOSURES  

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Please consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. 

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

CRC conferred by The International Foundation for Retirement Education.

Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Private Advisor Group, LLC, a registered investment advisor.  

Private Advisor Group, LLC and Cortburg Retirement Advisors, Inc. are separate entities from LPL Financial.

Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

1 https://alwaystheholidays.com/st-patricks-day-quotes/

2 https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog/luck-vs-skill-a52c5ab62b9d

·         3 https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/the-dows-biggest-single-day-drops-in-history

 

 

Contributor

Miguel Gonzalez, MBA, AIF®, CPFA®, PPC®, CRC®

Host